New data from the Fannie Mae Housing Survey suggests that 66% of Americans think it’s a BAD TIME to buy a Home right now. That’s a record high and reflects souring sentiment towards the 2021 Housing Market Bubble. Even in the face of increasing inflation. Could a Housing Crash be next?
Americans have never been this down on the US Housing Market. Normally only 20-30% of people believe it’s a bad time to buy. But the 66% reading in September 2021’s Fannie Mae survey is a RECORD HIGH.
Why is this case? Likely because most first-time home buyers are completely priced out of today’s market. Many cannot afford the down payment, or qualify for a mortgage. In fact – today’s Real Estate Market is so expensive that inflation adjusted home prices are at ALL TIME HIGHS.
That’s according to data from the Case Shiller Home Price Index, adjusted for growth in inflation measured by changes in Consumer Price Index (CPI). The only other time home prices in America were even close to this high was 2005-06 – right before the last Housing Crash.
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Not only are Americans souring on buying a home right now – fewer and fewer people believe home prices will keep increasing. The same Fannie Mae survey suggests that only 37% of Americans believe home prices will increase over the next 12 months.
One has to wonder why Americans are so down on the market, yet real estate market pundits (YouTubers such as Graham Stephan and MeetKevin) as well mainstream financial outlets are so positive. What explains the disconnect?
I suspect it has something to do with surging investor demand. Over the last several quarters investor home buying has spiked, both from institutional buyers like Zillow and Blackrock to mom and pop investors like many who watch the Reventure Consulting channel.
While this investor demand is sustaining home prices in the short-term, I’m skeptical they they will in the long-run. Back before the last Housing Crash, in 2005, investor demand in the market surged just like today. Only to collapse by 80% in the coming years as the Crash took place.
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LINKS
Fannie Mae Crash Time Study: https://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/PaperDocuments/20090617_RP_PreviousHousePriceDeclines_508.pdf
Studies on Restrictions / Job Losses:
NBER: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27280
Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/how-much-lockdown-policies-contribute-to-local-unemployment-20210524.htm
California Study: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28414/w28414.pdf
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0:00 A Bunch of Baloney
0:58 Most Expensive EVER! (Cash Shiller)
2:52 “Do Not Buy”: 66% of Americans
4:30 The Real Estate Elites: “It’s Fine! Market is Strong!”
5:47 No More FOMO
7:14 Investors and Government Stimulus
8:46 When does the Crash Start?
9:41 5 Year Housing Crash
11:00 How Much RISK?!
#Don’tBuy #HousingCrash #FirstTimeBuyer