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10. NASHVILLE, TN: inventory in the Nashville Housing Market has skyrocketed over the last year as fewer pandemic homebuyers are moving in. Meanwhile, the market is 34% overvalued according to data from the Reventure App. Prices in Nashville could decline by a lot in in the coming years.
09. DALLAS, TX: inventory in the Dallas Housing Market has tripled over the last year. While the sky-high property taxes are keeping many would-be homebuyers locked out of the market. I expect DFW home prices to decline by 20-30% over the next several years.
08. SAN FRANCISCO, CA: home prices in the Bay Area Housing Market are already down 15% YoY. And they could decline further in coming months due to the collapse of the tech sector. Companies such as Meta, Google, and DocuSign are doing big layoffs.
07. BOISE, ID: Boise benefitted from tech remote workers moving in during the pandemic. But now those remote workers are getting laid off and called back into the office. Creating a big pileup of inventory and declining home prices.
06. TAMPA, FL: remote buyers were a big reason Tampa’s Housing Market spiked during the pandemic. But the locals in Tampa only earn about $64k per year. Meaning that today’s Housing Bubble in Tampa is not sustainable. Prices could decline by 20-30%.
05. JACKSONVILLE, FL: this is a real estate market that investors love. But now that rents are going down, investors are bailing on Jacksonville. Which is resulting in a surge in sellers cutting the price. This Housing Market is 30% overvalued based on the historical relationship of home prices to median income.
04. PHOENIX, AZ: Phoenix is a very boom/bust Housing Market. And the bust has started. Prices are already down 10% from peak and could decline another 25% based on how overvalued the prices still are today. Especially at Mortgage Rates north of 6%.
03. SALT LAKE CITY, UT: Utah is a Housing Market exposed to layoffs, lots of home building, and where the house prices grew way above local incomes in the last several years. That’s a recipe for a big Housing Crash. One that has already started in cities like Salt Lake City and Provo.
02. LAS VEGAS, NV: Las Vegas is an economy and housing market based off tourism and and investor demand. Not a great combination for an imminent recession. These risk factors have already caused inventory in Las Vegas to explode while prices are already down 10%. They could go down another 25%.
01. AUSTIN, TX: what a reversal of fortunes. Just a year ago Austin’s Housing Market was deemed as “untouchable” and the fastest growing in America. Now it’s mired in the first year of what will likely be a multi-year housing downturn that sees prices decline by as much as 40% in total. High property taxes, layoffs, lots of homebuilding – Austin has all the headwinds one would expect for a crashing Housing Market.
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